The Drug and Food Administration warned Thursday that diabetes drugs could be elevating the rate of pancreatic cancer. Investors should not be astonished. Nor specially nervous. We've known for years that GLP-1 drugs raise the likelihood of pancreatitis. I wrote about an FDA warning about Byetta not quite five years ago. Last month, a study in JAMA Internal MedicineAshowed that Byetta -- which can be now held by AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZNAA) and Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMYAA) once they ordered Amylin Pharmaceuticals -- and Merck's (NYSE: MRKAA) Januvia double the rate of pancreatitis. Januvia is really a DPP-4 chemical, but GLP-1 medicines and DPP-4 inhibitors work on the same path to lower sugar -- DPP-4 inhibits GLP-1 action -- so it's not surprising they could have the same influence on the pancreas. The most recent notice comes from unpublished data distributed to the FDA that showed inflammation and pre-cancerous cellular changes in pancreas biopsies from patients taking DPP-4 inhibitors and GLP-1 drugs. Since it is thought to be a school influence, the FDA warning expands beyond Januvia and Byetta to all or any the DPP-4 inhibitors and GLP-1 drugs: Novo Nordisk's (NYSE: NVOAA) Victoza, Bristol and Astra's Onglyza, Takeda's Nesina, Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLYAA) and Boehringer Ingelheim's Tradjenta, and their combination products. It'd be disastrous to the companies, particularly Merck since Jaunvia is just a multibillion-dollar blockbuster, if the drugs were pulled from the market. But investors should not worry quite yet. This really is very early data and "pre-cancerous cellular changes" doesn't of necessity result in a big increase in the rate of cancer. It appears possible -- dare I say probable -- that the FDA will see that the drugs create a small escalation in the rate of pancreatic cancer, but that the gains outweigh the increased risk. The company can slap a notice on the drugs, and we'll be back again to business as usual. The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has picked his No. 1 share for the next year. Learn which stock it's in the brand-new free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2013." Just click here to get into the survey and learn the name of the under-the-radar business. link
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